In 2014, the bioethanol production in Europe has reached a value of 5.3 billion liters. The market benefitted from low feedstock prices and the restriction made on the bioethanol imports. As the production expanded the consumption declined, and therefore the EU has a reached a market balance in both 2014 and 2015. However, in 2015 the production and consumption has declined to around 5.
2 billion liters. Global demand of ethanol is expected to increase over the years, meaning that there is a high probability that bioethanol will be exported both to EU and non-EU countries. The world production of ethanol is expected to grow by 50%, to 158 billion liters, by 2023. By then, the production of ethanol by maize is anticipated to fall from 53% to 46%, while the share from sugar crops is forecast to rise from 25% to 31%.According to the research that has been carried out, the best route of action to gain profit is to import bioethanol to the EU market focusing specifically on Poland. This decision has been made due to the increase demand of ethanol in Poland.
Unlike the overall EU trend, the consumption of bioethanol in Poland has increased in 2016 and 2017 as a result of the gradual rise in the mandates imposed for the biofuels. In addition, the imported bioethanol is lower in price compared to the ones produced domestically. Hence, the domestic production of bioethanol is not fully utilized. As an EU member state, Poland have to follow the renewable energy directive (RED) which implemented a target of 20% renewables in all energy used by 2020 and 10% renewables in the transport department. Poland has also made an overall target for biofuel consumption. In 2015, The fuel suppliers were forced to blend fuels with a minimum of 7.1% biofuels.
In 2017, this obligation has increased to 7.8% and 8.5% in 2018. The ethanol produced in Poland is relatively expensive and as a result of the RED implementation targets, which increase every year, Poland will have to use ethanol for fuel blending. This ethanol can therefore be imported from Iceland at a much lower price.